Digital photo frames
They certainly have increased massively in popularity (if not quality). The main sticking points seem to be non standard aspect ratios (some are 16:9, some are 4:3 some are 3:2) so the pictures require formatting or people will look odd, high power requirements so most will only work from the mains. The prices have come down and it's been possible to get a 7" screen for around £35. They are popping up in more and more places and are appealing to a much broader market than before. Their popularity will only increase and slowly but surely larger versions (upto 12") are making their way onto the market. The next evolution will come with the development of e-ink. With this technology displaying a picture uses no energy - energy is only used to change the picture. There'll be more about this later. Black and white e-ink products are already on the market and colour-displays have been prototyped. I'll have more about e-ink in my predictions for 2008.
Result: partly successful
Contactless payments
The wave and pay system has been rolled out in London, but in a much smaller area than predicted: it is really only useful within the city, but it will be rolled out further over 2008. Travel anywhere on the tube and you will see ads for the Barclay One-pulse credit card that combines wave and pay with an oyster card so this may well become very popular in London this year. For the rest of the country however I'm not sure how long it will take as the banks are only planning to issue 5m cards this year and HSBC in Durham didn't even have any details of any north east trials.
result: predicted too early
HSDPA
A bit hard to tell what to think of this one. Most 3G phones released this year have been HSDPA-enabled. Pretty much all the phones released since May are capable of connecting to the net at 3.6Mbps which is almost as fast as the average UK broadband speeds. The speeds are set to double to 7.2Mbps (and maybe even 14.4Mbps) in 2008 and indeed over the summer most of the UK phone networks began to take mobile data access a lot more seriously. Certainly 3, Vodafone and T-mobile offer USB HSDPA modems for accessing the internet from a laptop anywhere with a mobile phone signal and all the networks have launched "unlimited" data packages to connect to the internet from your phones. The term unlimited varies wildly with 3 being the most generous offering 1Gb of data for £5/month, followed T-mobile offering 1Gb for £12.50/month (The cheaper £7.50 option apparently is fixed at a much slower speed than HSDPA is capable of), O2 allow 200Mb for £7.50/month and Vodafone offer 120Mb for £7.50 whilst Orange bring up the rear demanding £8/month for a paltry 30Mb. So once again, we have the facilities to make a massive jump forward in information access, but only if we're prepared to pay for it. Expect HSDPA routers to become a lot cheaper in 2008 and perhaps higher data allowances.
result: success - but who will pay for it?
Personal GPS
Now I will admit defeat on this one. Sales of in car, stand-alone GPS units must have gone through the roof this year with the big brand, Tomtom, finally breaking under the £100 barrier putting it in the realm of impulse purchase. However, my prediction was about personal GPS ie built into mobile phones. At the moment you get the best from sat-nav if a mobile phone is involved cos the phone can download traffic updates and send them to the main unit via bluetooth which will then seamlessly direct you around traffic jams. I can see the bigger companies like Tomtom integrating a sim card into new in car units and do this without the need for a phone or data charges (much like the Amazon Kindle reader does with books). But back to my prediction that most mobile phones would have GPS in them by the end of the year. It was looking good, the N95 launched with GPS and even a lower end Nokia 6110 had GPS. All the new HTC phones were run my the Qualcomm 7200 chip that includes, among other things, built in GPS and wifi. Sure enough all the new phones (Tytn II, Touch Dual and S730) were shown with fully functioning GPS and wifi, but for some reason the final devices lacked GPS (Touch Dual and S730) and wifi (Touch Dual). The phones good switch these functions on, but HTC had removed the antennae making the features useless. This seems a bit odd as it would increase the appeal of the phones. Furthermore the follow up to the very successful K800i, the K850i - widely rumoured to have GPS - was released GPS-less. The cynical would say that the GPS features were only disabled to provide the ability to release "upgraded" models in 6 months. The years big release, the iPhone was also GPS-less so this perhaps took the pressure off other manufacturers. I'll extend this prediction to next year.
result: failed due to lazy companies
Wii
Here's the unmitigated success of my predictions. It wasn't easy to find a Wii after Christmas. I kept missing stock refreshes online and most batches sold out within minutes. I finally got my Wii in late January and it was fantastic. The demand kept up and Wiis were hard to come by until the summer and suer enough once Christmas rolled around again they were once again nowhere to be found. It's not just the UK, in the week before Christmas 1.5 million Wiis were sold around the world - that's 1.5 million in a week. The only thing more popular was the DS lite which sold over 2 million in a week. By comparison the PS3 sold around 600K and the PSP sold 725K. Take that Sony. It seems the combination of a low (well-ish) price and broad appeal have hit a nerve. I heard stories of people's parents buying Wiis and having Wii parties with their friends. While there was a dearth of party games, Paper Mario, Resident Evil 4, Metroid Prime 3 and the sublime Super Mario Galaxy ensured it catered to the gamers too. As the bloggers favoured animated Gif below says - these Nintendo consoles are printing money (just as the PS3 eats it). Even though they're slightly creepy, they crack me up every time I see them.
The next year starts off with the release of Wii fit, complete with balance board, that Nintendo can use to cash in on the whole after Christmas exercise fad so expect the console sales to keep on accelerating away from the competition.
result: definitely a success.
I'll post my predictions for 2008 in the next couple of days.
No comments:
Post a Comment