Predictions for the technology hits of 2008

I think I did pretty well in my predictions for 2007, so here are some things I think will start to become big in 2008:

"small" computers

For some reason, even though technology is shrinking, the outward appearance of PCs hasn't changed since the early 90s. Although the classic ATX format has the increasingly popular microATX offspring, most PCs sold by Dell and PC World still retain the "big box" appearance of the tower case. In the old days this was due to the fact that everything, from a printer port to sound needed an add-in card. These days all these add-ins are integrated onto the motherboard itself. In fact, unless you want a graphics card for gaming there is no need for any add-in cards. Sadly at the moment these cards suck up a lot of power and generate a lot of heat which work best with large cases. Several years ago several companies - led by Shuttle - designed small form factor (SFF) systems utilising clever thermal management to enable modern processors and graphics cards to fit in small shoe-box sized boxes. The downsides were the cost and the amount of noise they generated (larger fans that are quieter don't physically fit). As the price of PCs fell dramatically, these systems looked even more expensive and now only Shuttle still offer a range of them and even these are getting bigger in an effort to support the latest, fastest graphics cards. In the last 2 years it has once again fallen to Apple - populiser of the MP3 player - to release the Mac Mini. This is a super small computer that runs almost silently. It achieves this by having an external power supply which doesn't need a cooling fan, use of special low power (but still quick) processor and integration of all the features such as graphics, sound, wifi, usb etc onto the motherboard. Apple have even managed to squeeze in a DVDR/W drive. But where to go from here? At Apple's Macworld conference later this month it is expected that a new Mac Mini will be unveiled - it may get a name change but it is expected to use the new Intel chipsets to further improve power efficiency and improve performance. If the performance is improved so that the new HD formats can be played from it, combined with Apple's desire to have a machine sitting under your TV from which you buy films from iTunes to watch on your TV, we may end up with a very capable (except gaming) weenie machine.

In the world of laptops too, prices have fallen significantly with once exception: lightweight laptops. If you don't mind lugging round 3 kg of laptop then you can get a decent one for £400, but if you want true portability the price rockets to around £1000. That was until Asus came out with the EEE PC. Made from old chips that Asus got for cheap, the laptop is close to 1 kg and costs only £220. People may scoff at the specs - a Celeron 900 processor that is underclocked, a 7" screen and only 4Gb of storage but they're missing the point. You can install Windows on it and the hard drive is a solid-state drive which is much faster than a traditional hard drive. The included Linux system boots in 15 seconds. The storage can be boosted with USB sticks or SD cards (which go upto 32 Gb these days). There's a built in webcam and microphone, vga output and wifi built in so the EEE PC is a truly mobile PC. The device has been so popular that it was sold out for most of December. This means that other manufacturers will take notice and begin to prep their own microlaptops. In the next few days Asus will be releasing details about their 2nd gen EEE, rumoured to include an 8.9" 1024x600 screen (compared to a cramped 800x480 on the original) and built in wireless broadband (WiMAX in the US and perhaps HSDPA in the EU).

I'm not that hopeful that small PCs will catch on this year, but the EEE PC will ensure people start to take notice.

E-paper

I mentioned this in my review of last year's predictions. It consists of a layer of balls that are white on one side and black on the other. Applying voltage across them cause them to align. Thus you can create images. The displays are bistable - they only consume power when they are changed so once an image has been set it will remain that way even when the batteries run out. At the moment the technology is used for text-based displays. The Motorola F3 is a cheap, long-lasting mobile phone and things like the Sony Reader promise to revolutionise the book. E-paper is much easier to read, appearing like regular paper - it isn't backlit so it doesn't strain your eyes over long periods. The Sony reader allows you to download books and store them on SD cards (you can fit a lot of books into 1 Gb). The device itself is about the same size as a paperback book and you navigate through books by "turning" pages. The technology has an ~1 second response time and the display resets to white before the new page appears. This has put a lot of people off, but it is reported that, just like physically turning a page, you stop noticing it. The device isn't currently available outside of the US, but the idea of this and a little box of SD cards is much more in line with my minimalist life idea. Amazon US recently released the Kindle - a similar kind of device which proved very popular in the US so the interest is there.

The next big thing to happen is flexible E-paper. This uses the same system, but whilst the TFTs that drive the current range of E-paper are based on silicon and therefore inflexible, several companies, including Cambridge's Plastic Logic, have created printable plastic TFTs that allow for flexible devices - a prototype of which is shown below.



I've a more advanced prototype in the flesh and it's very impressive. It is envisioned as being a business tool at first to allow the displaying of email attachments and to receive newspapers via a wireless subscription. The newspapers lost out in a major way to the onset of the internet which they didn't perceive as a threat, so they're not going to make the same mistake with E-paper. Plastic Logic have built an assembly plant in Dresden and the first products are expected to hit the shelves next Christmas so flexible readers could be a big hit in 2009!. The other big development is colour with several companies reporting successful laboratory tests.

Eventually these designs will be scaled up - imagine the giant advertising boards; instead of having a team of workmen to replace the posters one bit at a time, just upload a new image and they automatically update and once updated, they consume no power until they need to be changed again.

Personal GPS

It was a bit of a no-show last year - the technology was there but manufacturers chose to disable the feature. Logic dictates that this is simply so they can enable GPS in the next handsets that will launch in May/June and immediately create desire for the new models. The real driver though will be if the 2nd Apple iphone incorporates GPS (which it almost certainly will) - ever since the iPhone was announced, we've seen a slew of touch screen phones released, but none have matched the iPhone's specs (HVGA resolution and a multitouch screen) so companies are clearly influenced by Apple. At the moment GPS is a high end feature (such as the N95, Tytn II, Touch Cruise) but it will certainly filter down to the mainstream handsets this year and with it we'll see many more GPS-applications such as texting friends your location and navigating using Google maps or simply tagging photos with GPS coordinates. Now a GPS chip costs $1 so there really isn't any excuse.

Splashpower

I've been following this company on and off for several years now but it seems like 2008 could finally be the big year for them. They have developed a way of charging electronic devices by electromagnetic induction. How this works is that you plug a mousepad sized pad into the mains and then simply place items on it to charge - there is no need to plug in anything other than the pad. They claim a power efficiency of >90% and that charging speed is independent of the number of devices on the pad. It certainly sounds appealing as things like remote controls, MP3 players, phones and every other portable battery containing device could be sold without an AC adaptor. No doubt some people will say it's a return to the days when electrical items came without plugs, but it should drop the cost of the items in the first place and smaller, portable pads should be available for travelling - but if it really takes off, then hotels and the like will probably provide pads in-room. It should also help cut down the amount of wasted power attributed to phone chargers left plugged in 24/7. Eventually devices will come with compatible batteries already installed, but until then adaptors will be made available. It's taken the company a long time to get anything to the market and I think it's down to negotiating with companies to make their devices compatible. Splashpower are demonstrating their stuff at CES next week so hopefully we'll finally get a release date for the pads.

Smart cards

I touched on this last year with my prediction that contacless payment cards would take off. That didn't quite prove true unless you live or work in the city of London where the system was fully rolled out. This time around I'm predicting the rise of smart cards in general. Whilst the Oyster card has ensured that smart cards will always have a place in the UK, the rest of the country is so far missing out. This is set to change this year as Oyster-like cards are to be rolled out on the Birmingham transport system - this year for buses and next year for trains - it's a system that makes a massive amount of sense as it will cut fare-dodgers and speed upto the endless queues at New Street at peak times. The first to benefit will be the OAPs - including my parents - who will receive their free buses smart cards this Easter. It'll probably be the first time my parents have ever been at the front of a technology roll-out. In addition to this the wave and pay trials should reach out to the rest of the country by the end of the year. How popular it will be I don't know - it depends on retailer take-up. Of course, anyone applying for a passport will get a form of smart card in the form of the new RFID passports which is in itself a form of smart card. The plastic electronics industry is still trying to get the cost of a printed RFID tag under 1 cent before they start to challenge the old-skool barcode - don't expect that to happen this year.

Also keep an eye out for converging personal devices: The new iPod touch is simply and iPhone without the phone part (it still has the internet facilities) or another way of looking at it is that the iPhone is a slightly lower capacity iPod (16 Gb vs 8 Gb). Expect to see the 2nd gen iPhone sport HSDPA, built in GPS, and 16 Gb flash memory. And a high price. The iPhone hasn't taken off in the UK as we're not used to paying so much for phones - an iPhone costs £900 in all including the contract. The US are used to getting didged for phones so they lapped it up.